"I just hope the new guy can revive PAIR. I fear that without some solid news and direction, the "January bounce" we're seeing here will not hold up. If that's the case, hello 6 again."
We have to pass through one and probably two quarters of reduced earnings! During the CC, Strauch indicated that earnings would be significantly below expectations, and he also explicity stated that 'earnings would not fall into negative numbers, and that Pair would generate positive cash.'
Significantly below expectations (0.17), but still in positive territory translates, IMHO, to .5 to .8. This would generate 3.5 to 5 millions positive cash. If the earnings come in significantly over these numbers, say .12-.14, I think the stock will hold and possible go up. If the numbers come out below .8, I think the anxiety of the investors coupled with manipulation of the MMs will bring the price downward before Jan.27 earnings day. (New contracts or developments could change this scenario.) Without new positive developments, I think the next Q could produce far more uncertaintly than this Q.
I don't think Strauch would have pre-warned for .2 decline in earnings. I think the pre-warning indicates a significant decline from previous expectations.
The market for HDSL2 and ADSL should generate enough new business by the end of the 2nd. Q to reverse the earnings decline.
Emile |
