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To: Brookelise (42107 )
From: dppl Saturday, Jan 9 1999 4:09PM ET
Reply # of 42109
The classic timing here is a blowoff running into MSFT's earnings release then a big sell off - not sure if the SOX will make it that long but that's what I think. The sell off may begin with INTC's earnings, more appropriately for SOX.
DPPL
Message 7191378
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To: dppl (42099 )
From: Brookelise Saturday, Jan 9 1999 3:33PM ET
Reply # of 42109
Dppl: The whole sector is way overbought, and you can see it in the chart for the Phlx Semiconductor Index (SOX), which is similar to MU's chart. AMAT's chart looks the same. Not only are the bars well outside the Bollinger bands on all the charts, but various momentum indicators, such as CCI(13), are giving sell signals. CCI often turns down before MACD(5,35,4), and MACD has turned down now, too. You can see the same ominous candlesticks in all the charts, too.
The SOX is getting ready to bump up against its all-time high, and it's going to meet strong resistance there. A pause or correction is more than likely. The whole market is dangerously overbought now, too, and it could drag the semis down with it. One need only look back to previous highs in the charts of MU, AMAT and the SOX to see what can happen. Further, the Nikkei looks precarious after its recent strong rally, and any Asian troubles could drag the semis down.
Brooke
Message 7191005
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OTOH hasn't the SOX, Naz, NDX etc. been overbought for quite a while?
OTOH wouldn't an objective technician be running from such a negative divergence?
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