They're cheap alright but that is Apr20 for .25
You might have also noticed there are 1132 open Apr20 puts right now. 10 are mine.
As I saw mentioned a few messages back, these could be a major home run (slight chance) but have a very good chance of being a 4X.
I bought them for the 4X aspect, not because I'm *that* sure it'll get below 20. At least I wasn't that sure when I bought them. Have to wonder now. Lotsa bad press and the worst hasn't come out yet (that they *knew* they only had 1/3rd of the modems they needed to fulfill the unlimited-access obligation).
There *might* be a chance for this company still. Why?
1. biz.yahoo.com
Though it is overall a very negative article, the following statement is part of it:
In the past few days, analysts said it has been easier to get online and they have not been getting busy signals as much as before, already a sign that either the bad publicity is scaring away users or the new modems are helping users sign on faster.
Quite a positive spin, if you ask me. Some friends of mine told me today that they found it a bit easier to get on Friday. I think it's because a lot of folks have given up trying in the evening, since they often redial forever, only to end up getting a disconnect sometime during their session.
I can easily see AOL putting a positive spin on this, though. They are *very* good at that.
2. We have no guarantee at this point that they're going to court. If the meeting with the 20 AGs ends up on a positive note, that will seriously slow down the slide. AOL will do *whatever it takes* to make sure it comes out positive, or that they can at least put a positive spin on it.
3. They can still salvage much of the situation by either acquiring one or more large ISPs and getting users into AOL proprietary stuff through the "bring your own ISP" channels, or signing agreements with these same ISPs to set up accounts. Logistically, this would be a bitch, but clever enough programmers could get the accounts loaded up on these ISPs. Personally, I doubt anyone clever enough exists at AOL, though.
Anyway, I bought these puts to turn $250 into $1000 in a month or two, but will be ecstatic if I can turn it into $10,000 instead, as is looking ever more likely.
BTW, I caught the CIS commercial. Had to laugh out loud because the last shot was not shown in the CNBC piece about it, where they show their phone number as 1-888-NOT-BUSY. *ROTFLMAO* |
