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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 24.08

-3.1%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4060)	1/10/1999 3:28:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) of 29970

T is mistaken if they think their future lies in VoIP. There is no future in it. I should say there is no profitable future in it. It will be just a must carry stipulation by the FCC. Maybe Armstrong doesn't realize this yet, but T wants to merge with TCI in order to have the lead in providing broadband services. Broadband services include VoIP as an incidental. At best a presence in VoIP helps to get a lead in influencing people to go ATT for the full spread. So T is not staking its future on VoIP. It's doing this to make the merger palatable to the FCC. It's all a ploy. It is hopeless to find the infinite number of things not apparent in deploying VoIP since they are not those which T thinks they are and not what T wants the FCC to believe they are. Quality is a short term consideration. Is this truly an issue? Risk? The risk is not to deploy broadband and the ancillary, VoIP. It is broadband that will enable telephony. ILECs won't even exist in 5 years. You are starting from the assumption that the existing telephony system will be enhanced and extended by developments in cable and copper. I'm starting from the assumption that all the infrastructure of switches, copper wire, gateways, the whole gamut will be gone in no time flat. The reason is cost. There is no excuse for continuing to support any of this antiquated technology. The only reason it is still in place is because the '96 Act interfered with natural evolution which is precisely what you can expect from august law making bodies. They are the least informed about lowest cost solutions. The T-TCI merger is the watershed event. It will go through and then all the pretenders, everyone else in communications, will have to field a viable competitor. They can't do it with the old. SONET and ATM are part of the old too, but they have a little life left. If you had studied business history of the turn of the century you would see just how rapidly all the established stuff will disappear. You will remark to me that it is a miracle that it could vanish so fast. What is remarkable is the failure of large communications companies to see the large pool of profit waiting beyond their fears.

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