Gersh, Re: Point of Pain
I looked at the concept a while back, and while it makes sense intuitively, it has not worked in this market. If one paid attention to the Point of Pain in IBM or INTC or etc., one would have been killed. Why bother? As with marbles, or houses, it seems that a more prudent course is to go with the flow (Ride the Wave) until the rip tide comes.
It gets a little ridiculous when looking at small timeframes, but the annualized returns of this past week is over 2000% percent. Yet, you are just now going into the Market. When is it going to end is the biggie question???
Nothing says to me that this past week's run is going to end anytime soon!!! Of course, I could and acknowledge that I can, and do, occassionally have brown spots in my pants. I'm willing to follow anybody that does not. To date, the only individual that even comes close is GZ. Just an observation. but based upon a lot of hours of reviewing the predictions.
Long ago I stated that the really big BK factors are not even considered by us, let alone known. All of us were taught that Mr. Market does not like uncertainty. Clearly, this market does not care about our preconcieved notions. Of course, you are hampered by the time line! I'm really glad that I'm not limited by someome's perception of the the appropriate mutual fund in which to invest; particularly considering the absolutely absurd time delay that you have to deal with.
TB |
