UK AND EUROPEAN BIOTECHS. Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : UK AND EUROPEAN BIOTECHS.

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To: Preston Lurie who wrote (27)	1/27/1997 2:08:00 AM
From: James Silverman	of 64

I've owned Ethical for some time, its currently the worst holding I have. The erosion in the share price is perplexing. I wonder if the deals they have cut are just terribly unfavorable and if management is capable. Here's a little off the cuff (can't vouch for accuracy now) value analysis: Price: $5 S/O: 16.0M MV: $80M cash on hand: $15M Stake in Phytopharm: $28M Stake in Medi-Ject: $15M Technology Value: $22M My take: The patches are not worth all that much. Some of the licensing terms they have signed are poor. Real value is in once daily pill in the US market. Tough to get specifics on deals, so I'm largely speculating, if you have additional info please pass it along. Particularly the Elan deal and if leads are being actively pursued or not. An extremely cheap valuation should anything be of substance.

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