Carl, but if you did the same with another stock that had a brilliant future (SPCT, WFR) you would still be licking your wounds. I also like the long term holds (hey, I am holding PROG for more then a month now VBG), but industry does undergo cycles (particularly the semi), and being out for sometime is not a bad idea.
If I were Don, after being in VECO so long, I surely would stay in VECO right now, since I believe we had but only the first leg up of the semi recovery (the shipments of the industry will not return to their 1995 peak for another two years in my opinion). Short term the semi equipment might be stretched, but we have not gone to ridiculous valuations yet. Thus after a retrenchment here (which should hold for VECO just few points from where we are) I expect VECO to continue its march up until it becomes ridiculously valued as it was in the last run (but being a much larger company, I am guessing a ridiculous price of between $90 to $120 as a peak). Of course, I have been wrong before and that is why I use stop losses. My absolute change of direction for VECO is know a breach of $44 or so, but short term stop loss is at $54.5.
Zeev |
