Glenn,
No offense, but I have to say that I laughed all the way through my reading of your post (33855). While I am sure you are a kind of serious person who has done thorough research on AMZN, and found all sorts of imbalance on its valuation, you have to know that this is a stock market, not a Concept/Valuation debate forum. I can understand your opinion and to some degree agree with you toward AMZN, but the realty is that just because you believe your thought is right, doesn't mean you make any money on it. In fact, your "correct" opinion has caused you dearly, more than $500/per share in total I guess? You come here to make money, right? Why you were so stubborn to lose your OWN money to fight for so-called "valuation"? As I said before, even if your opinion proves to be correct by year 2002 and AMZN drops to $10, were you be able to survive until then to make your loss back?
Let me say this, the fact that I'm now seeing more shorts on this board make me very happy. This means AMZN still has a long way to move up. The more AMZN moves up, the more 'rediculous' its valuation will look like, and the more perhaps you shorts claiming the "top", and the more we long make money by squeezing you guys. How clearer I have to state this situation over and over again? I just want to laugh when I saw some of the newbies on this board claiming the longs have "pea-sized brain", and he/she is so smart to catch AMZN's top. What a joke.
Read Mr. Banjeman's comments I posted earlier, you would notice that there are tons of people like them, i.e. institutional investors, waiting AMZN to pullback and jump in. He was stunned by how short the supposed "bad news" on $250mil Q4 revenue had effected AMZN. As we all know, so far institutions have not played big part in AMZN's growth. Many of them are eagerly waiting for the sizable drop of it in order to get in. As time passes, I can feel that their patience will quickly run out as they see even a bad news won't pull down the stock. More and more of them will have to jump in at any weakness AMZN might have.
Based on this observation, my prediction on Monday morning is as follows (some of you have asked for this),
Monday morning, if S&P future indicates a rather negative opening, say down 8 ~ 10 pts, then AMZN could open at 10 pts lower at around $150. But in less than 20 minutes we should see AMZN trading back to positive ground, and move higher from there.
If S&P future indicates a flat opening, then AMZN could start at $170 range, and moved rapidly toward $200 mark.
If S&P future indicates a strong opening, say up 8 ~ 10 pts, then we could see AMZN opens at $185 ~ $190 range, and move solidly above $200 within an hour.
When all the dust settles by closing time, we shall see AMZN trades at $200 range, barring any major market's downside movements and/or AMZN's own extremely unexpected bad news.
Good luck, especially to shorts! You really need it!!!
MB |
