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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: rudedog who wrote (42895)1/10/1999 7:24:00 PM
From: Gabriel008  Read Replies (2) of 97611
 
Rudedog, I subscribe to IDC and for a hefty fee receive PC sales data on a quarterly basis. I will receive Q4 data Jan 23 a few days before CPQ reports.

Based on my calculations CPQ needs to achieve approximately 25% sequential revenue growth this quarter in order to generate $0.36 eps. Assuming the same ASP as Q3 this requires CPQ to generate 25% sequential unit growth as well.These estimates are based on 26% gross profit and the same operating expenses as Q3.

I'm concerned that the required sales growth is too great to achieve without some form of channel stuffing. Certainly, stuffing would irreparably damage CPQ's image and credibility and I can't logically see CPQ management reverting to this in order to make their numbers.

Do you have an hard data, outside the sales numbers, that would suggest that CPQ has made their earnings numbers for Q4?

Best regards, Gabriel
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