*OT* GC, Voltaire: "The minds who fail to see Amazon's great potential are not great minds"..
GC- Let me add, that the ones (minds) that fail to see the (painfully obvious) risks to Amazon....or even downplay them (to the extent you have) can't not be much better...
Look, I give Bezos a lot of credit....In my (compared to others brief) investment experience, I have learned to attribute more and more value (albeit hard to exactly quantify) to good managements who have done terrific things..Bezos obviously should get a lot of credit for building one of the first internet SALES behemoths....there is value there......truly amazing..
However, and I think this is part of Chuzz's point, he has not proven he can build a PROFITS behemoth....and, because, he has not done so, this company's stock does carry a lot of risk.....and current assessed value can only be stretched too far....Amazon's stock price is absurd...
I do believe Amazon (and Bezos) will ultimately survive as a company...but these morphoded (sp) form is pretty unclear to me (and probably Bezos) at this point...He has built a brand that will probably be sustainable in some form...
But from selling books? CDs? Look, one is only one mouse click away from using intelligent software (Buy.com, others) that can find sites that beat Amazon's price hands-down in many cases...Bertelsmann did not sink 300 million into barnesandnobles.com to be a loser....A prediction: 1999 is going to bring an absolute bloodbath pricewar in book (prices)...this is an ugly way to build a brand, and is only possible due to internet fever in the market.....Amazon will run into enormous problems (if and when) the stock suffers an extended decline....(for a good length of time)...I'm sure I don't have to totally get into the "snowball" effect (loss of personnel, ability to make acquisitions, etc.) of what could happen under such a scenario.....
Netscape is proof of how quickly an (internet) advantage can turn to dust..It seems (for Amazon) the environment is much more competitive (than it was for Netscape)....
In the short-term, because of this "Fever" , small floats, and liquidity (thanks to uncle Alan), the nets may keep floating for a while....but they are floating...Amazon, too...Good luck with the casino (as Voltaire would say)..
Oh great philosopher you, Voltaire, if I may be so blunt....I don't think you do your namesake justice by claiming one should buy a stock because "my angels told me so" (and expect to be taken seriously)...I've enjoyed your posts (and you have some good ones...informative) but how else can one react when you talk about the angels except, "Huh?"
(Angels are good things, as we all know, I just think they are involved in more pressing matter than our portfolios)
Don't be dissing my man Chuzz...he knows his stuff!
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