Yes Fred, you are on the right track. Intel is attempting to persuade the chip manufacturers to move volume production over to Direct-RDRAM but there is a reluctance due to the cost involved (especially test). Further, chip makers believe that demand for Direct-RDRAM will remain only on higher end servers & PCs for some time. Effectively, a niche - profitable, but not large enough to justify the costs of retooling. As a result, it is in their interests to reap scale benefits by continuing to supply SDRAM (PC-100/133, DDR) for the bulk of the PC market - especially considering the sunk cost. I do not, therefore, think that RDRAM will "soon" become mainstream, though eventually it probably will. Don't misunderstand me, the top makers (Toshiba, NEC, Samsung, MU) are all capable of mass-producing RDRAM, but as long as it generates a profit for them. Of that, they are yet to be persuaded. Think of it more as temporary disagreement on strategic direction.
The industry will find it increasingly difficult to supply ANY high end DRAM in sufficient quantities, let alone Rambus. I believe Intel realizes this too. |
