The old stepper technology continues to be squeezed for all its' worth, and 193nm technology that CYMI has the market lock on will not be employed for real production until 2001-4!!!
While this, strictly speaking, might end up being true, it implies something which is completely false - that Cymer doesn't also have a lock on the preceding generation of technology as well. Ideally, from a Cymer viewpoint, it would be true that there would be a shift to 193nm soon (say at 0.15u), but Cymer will not just limp along until that transition happens. Currently perhaps 25% or chips are made using Cymer product for 1 or 2 critical layers(?). As shrinks continue to happen, the percentage will go to 75%(?) and an average of 3 or 4 layers(?) - that's a factor of 6 growth in installed base, without selling any of the new technology, without upgrades in power, without replacement, and without any chip unit growth.
Clark |
