Zeev,
It's time for Zucchinis vs. Turnips II. (The thrilla in the garden)
On Aug. 14, 1998, I wrote in post 5535 that my economic indicators, aka zucchinis, were saying : the zucchinis are saying that the US economy will begin to accelerate again by the end of the year.
(http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5496181)
To which you replied in post 5543: I think that we are getting ready for a “face off” between zucchinis and turnips, the turnips are saying that we might have a recession looming by the end of the year, particularly if Asia slips down much further.
(http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/jump?s=18599&reply=5543)
Well, after last week's payroll report, it looks like there is no recession in sight. Score one for the zucchinis. Additionally the same post said, …my economic zucchinis are saying…that we are nearing the end of these two very long trends, referring of course to the decline in inflation and the rise in the dollar. A great call on the dollar by the zucchinis! Now on the matter of inflation, the turnips were the winner with the CRB reaching new lows and all other inflation indices showing no inflation in sight.
So, where to from here?
The zucchinis are still calling for a strong economy in 1999, although not at the rate of growth of 1998. A recession is not in the cards, er I mean squashes. Once again the zucchinis are predicting that the worm is about to turn on inflation and the years of lower rates on inflation are about to end, with a modest pickup in 1999.
I look forward to hearing what the turnips are saying.
-Robert |
