1999 trend,increasing sales of 32-channel wave division multiplexers?
STUDY REVEALS DWDM SALES TO SOAR; NORTEL LEADS MARKET
The market for dense wavelength division multiplexing equipment and optical networking equipment is expected to rise from $1.86 billion in 1998 to $2.6 billion in 2000 and $3.0 billion in 2002, according to a December report from the consultancy Ryan Hankin Kent (RHK) in San
Francisco. So it looks like DWDM will continue its march to become a major backbone technology used by North American carriers.
The report, "DWDM And Optical Networking: Technology And Markets," pegs Ciena [CIEN] of Linthicum, Md., Lucent Technologies [LU] of Murray Hill, N.J., and Nortel [NT] of Saint John, Canada, as the market leaders in DWDM equipment sales for North America in 1998. Together, the companies captured a total market share of 78 percent. RHK would not reveal how much market share each company captured in 1998.
Mat Steinberg, director of optical networking at RHK, says Nortel overtook Lucent as the market leader in DWDM for '98, however. "A year ago the market leader was Lucent," Steinberg says. "If you look at Nortel's customer base of carriers, their customer base grew faster in terms of network deployment."
Steinberg says Lucent's and Ciena's DWDM sales were flat in 1998 compared to 1997, whereas Nortel's sales grew.
One trend to watch for in 1999 will be the increasing sales of 32-channel wave division multiplexers that supports 10 Gbps on each channel.
...Are The Estimates On The Money?
"The estimates for the DWDM market seem fairly accurate," says Barry Flanigan, a senior analyst at the consultancy Ovum Inc. in Burlington, Mass. "The numbers are a little higher than what we predicted for the market... But they could explode a little more if metro DWDM takes off a little."
"One interesting point is that [RHK] sees that market as saturating toward [2002]," Flanigan says. "Sales to long distance carriers are going to slow. There is a lot of DWDM equipment in the ground already."
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