'Panic Time NOW?
asked in the TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum
OK, we've all been watching for "barometers" to gauge the general publics response to Y2K. I just got a
HUGE one in an e-mail from a friend who does NOT know I am preparing. All of you probably get stories
forwarded to you from friends. You know the kind, it comes as an attachment that has been forwarded
about 4,000 times. :-) Anyway, this e-mail was about the National Guard mobilization. Included was info.
about the Red Cross article and the FEMA article. If the responses I saw were any indication of what is
coming, a mass frenzy of buying may be starting NOW!
I also wanted to share a response included in the e-mail that is apparently from a National Guardsman. I
found this very interesting and the person seems to know what they are talking about:
"I am a C2 (Command and Control) person with NGB in Wash DC. This is going to happen, they are
currently working on the Public Affairs guidance.
On May 1-2, 1999 the National Guard is going to conduct Exercise COMEX/MOBEX. In short this is a
nation-wide recall of ALL 480k+ Guardsmen.
This will be simulated COMM-Out, in other words the standard method of recall ie: telephone is not an
option. The driver for this exercise is Y2K.
The purpose is to test whether or not the Guard can be recalled with a Mobilization Order (MO) during
COMM-Out. The MO in this case will be a simple phrase to determine where the holes in the system are.
This will NOT be an actual MO.
Significance
1. The National Guard has NEVER performed a national test of the system. Individual units or States do
perform tests of their systems internally, on an annual basis, with standard methods ie: telephone. Each unit
has a recall plan with backup system: Radio/Television then house to house. In theory, the system should
work.
2. The last time there was full mobilization was 1940 with the National Guard being absorbed by the Army
in preparation for WWII.
3. Mobilizing the Guard is big-doings, even thinking about it is big-doings. Parts of the Guard were
Mobilized for Berlin Airlift, Korea, Berlin Wall, Pueblo Crisis, Vietnam, Desert Storm and units are rotating
through Northern/Southern Watch, Bosnia, Haiti etc, but never the WHOLE thing. When you recall almost
a-half-a-million troops that are embedded in every career field expect to disrupt parts of society.
4. The President can only recall 200k and that requires an Executive Order declaring a National Emergency.
Full mobilization requires Congressional input.
5. The Guard can be mobilized in one of two ways: Federal and State. When recalled for State status, The
Guard falls under the control of the individual Governors and laws of the individual States. When recalled for
Federal status, the Army Guard becomes part of the US Army and the Air National Guard becomes part of
the USAF. This depends upon the wording of the recall order, they can be used "to execute the Laws of the
Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions" (U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 8, Clause 15).
Because of the "execute the Laws of the Union" it can be argued that Posse Comitatus does not apply.
Outcome
Logistically, we have a nightmare situation regarding recall. Most Guard units are comprised of personnel
that live in a surrounding area of the unit, but that can include crossing State lines. During this exercise I can
promise you that the nationwide numbers will be 95%+ personnel contacted and ready to respond. In the
Real World a COMM-Out situation compounded with rolling or otherwise brownout/blackout -a 25%
attrition rate, for the 72 hour recall period.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
[commentary]
The government is gearing up for a nationwide deployment of troops that we haven't seen since World War
II. A national emergency will almost certainly be declared before troops are deployed. The US Constitution
will again be hotly debated as the Clinton administration attempts to deploy the National Guard as a "national
police force."
But attrition will be high. The predictions above conclude that approximately 25% of the guardsmen will be a
no-show. If Y2K turns out to be worse than most people now think, expect that to increase to 50%. That
will leave the National Guard with approximately 240,000 troops: just a quarter-million troops. Divide that
among the 120 largest cities and you end up with only 2,000 troops *per city*. "Spread too thin" takes on
new meaning here. Will the National Guard really have the resources to stop riots? Will they have the
resources to actually reach people that need help?
The bottom line here is easy: don't depend on the National Guard to save your a**. Get prepared now.
Follow the advice of the American Red Cross and FEMA. Stockpile the supplies you can afford and that
you think are necessary."
It will be interesting to see what happens as this e-mail info. spreads.
-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), January 11, 1999
Answers
Whaamaakaaneezzz! Gayla, THANK YOU. Who needs coffee anymore?!
These insider eMails are good to read. Very glad you're back with us, Gayla; have missed you. Would write
more but we're off to the Mill to get, yep, rice & beans & whatever else they've got.
In our CERT/NERT/NET/FEMA class, guess who was there? Yep, employee of the big Mill; they've had
to go to three shift, just hired another 14 people. The Mormon cannery in Cascadia in now CLOSED to
non-Mormons. They cannot keep up with demand! The emergency supply outfit is hiring like crazy and
extending hours.
Off to bulk market, Ashton & Leska in Cascadia, who are sick of shopping and almost out of money, but
figure get it while you can
xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx
-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), January 11, 1999.
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