REPORTS / EIA Energy Forecast & OPEC Facts
January 1999 (January 8, 1999)
Projections Through the Year 2000
[To see details of this forecast update, go to the
following World Wide Web site on the Internet:
eia.doe.gov
An update to the Short-Term Energy Model for
January
1999 may be found at:
eia.doe.gov]
Highlights
World Oil Prices Expected to Rise From Low
December Levels
The average price of imported crude for U.S. refiners (an
indicator of world oil prices) is expected to climb from the
estimated December level of about $9.25 per barrel to be
about $13 per barrel by the end of 1999. The average price
is expected to move above $14 per barrel by the end of
2000. Despite these increases, prices would remain low
by historical standards.
U.S. Oil Demand: Despite Slower Economy, 1999 Likely
to Yield Higher Growth
Despite the assumption of a slower economy, U.S.
petroleum demand growth is expected to increase in 1999
by over 500,000 barrels per day, or 2.9 percent, from 1998
levels. Much of this growth is attributed to increases in
demand for heating fuel and other weather-sensitive
products.
High Stock Levels, Low World Oil Prices Curtail Rise
in Heating Oil
U.S. heating oil prices in first-quarter 1999 are expected to
rise an average of just 2 cents per gallon above fourth-
quarter 1998 prices, a level still 10 cents per gallon below
the first-quarter 1998 average. This comparatively low
price scenario is expected despite expected colder weather
because of the current low world oil prices and plentiful
distillate inventories.
Iraqi Oil Exports Continue Despite Bombings
Iraqi oil exports do not appear to have been affected by
airstrikes on that country in mid-December. This forecast
includes the assumption that Iraqi oil exports will
continue under the current United Nations Security
Council resolutions, meaning, by EIA estimates, that Iraq
will export about 1.8 million barrels per day in 1999 and
2.0 million barrels per day in 2000.
High Natural Gas Storage Levels to Keep Wellhead
Prices Under $2.00
Natural gas spot prices are projected to remain under $2
per thousand cubic feet through the summer of 1999,
unless the weather in the gas-consuming regions turns
unusually cold over the next few months. Current high
storage levels relative to levels last year at this time will
serve to moderate prices.
An updated OPEC Fact Sheet is now available. To access this report,
the World Wide Web address is:
eia.doe.gov
Included in the OPEC Fact Sheet are estimates of October 1998 and
average Third Quarter 1998 crude oil production from the 11 OPEC
countries,
as well as the July 1 production quotas. EIA estimates of October crude
oil production show that OPEC (excl. Iraq) was 85 percent compliant with
their July 1 quotas, and 76 percent compliant on average in the Third
Quarter of 1998.
Also included in the OPEC Fact Sheet is information on OPEC's basket
price,
which in 1998, was the lowest average annual price since the OPEC basket
was defined in 1986.
The OPEC Fact Sheet is updated on a monthly basis.
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