Spinning the news anew...
Now that it's official that we won't know of contracts until the customer actually advertises their product, essentially with a 'Valence Inside (TM),' it's interesting that certain posters would like the group to blame Fred for this event.
No doubt they are happy that official news of contracts will inherently be delayed until after the fact. The usual delays in the SEC financial statements will likely mean that you'll see a Valence battery in a laptop, cellphone, or Palm V in the palm of your hand, before you see the revenue on the official balance sheet.
No doubt in a few months we will all be trying to reverse-engineer the quantities shipped, and when they started, and at what rate, and whether that was just for 250,000 samples (e.g., 10000 samples x 25 OEMs, for more testing) or whether they were actual production product, delivered under contract. And if they stack up the product without shipping, until just after the end of a quarter, we won't know of revenue for another 3 full months.
But I can hardly blame Fred. No, it's litigious lawyers who take on shareholder lawsuits for contingencies. So I'll take Lev's 'forward looking' statements and hints as telegraphing a lot more truth than circumstances allow him to acknowledge. I won't be waiting for SEC statements to decide if I think this company is a worthwhile investment. I DO have the OPINION that contracts ARE a done deal, and am willing to wait the extra 3 months to see it in my share price. But I won't blame Fred. He's done a good job of estimating outputs, though somewhat optimistic on the timelines. In the end, his numbers will probably be within a factor of 2 or 3 of the truth. With the numbers we're talking, that's close enough for me to see where this stock is headed.
No doubt we will not be allowed any optimistic spin, such as, "Gee, maybe 'shipping in earnest' actually telegraphs delivering on an unannounced contract," or, "Gee, didn't Lev sound awfully certain that contracts themselves would be a DONE DEAL, and that it's really just a question of timing? Don't you suppose he meant something substantive by his statement that the 'customers like the product,' and that they 'have programs with various customers?'"
Until recently, the mantra of the doomsayers has been, "No contract announcement, no reason for optimism; customers must not like the product, nobody's buying it." Now that we can expect to see an increased burn rate for the current quarter, will we be allowed to anticipate shipping and resulting booking of revenues? Nooooo, it'll probably be argued that that's just foolish VLNC buying all that equipment, hiring all those people, and making batteries no one wants.
Might the market anticipate revenue sooner rather than later, since anything could be happening 'behind the curtain?' Or will our 'cool headed' friends help talk the price down by pointing out that we haven't seen the financial statement showing the revenue yet?
Just imagine the price fluctuations that might occur now, on the release of each quarter's financial statement. Yeow!
Meanwhile, Lev's comments about the CFO were hopeful.
PS Thanks, Mooter, for the financial analyses. |
