Mike, the only difference between NXTL's price today and 12/29/98 is investor awareness. Putting ATI in play focused the spotlight on all wireless companies, NXTL in particular. Anyone with half a brain knew two years ago that NXTL had a national footprint in the making. And those who have watched adds tumble out of NXTL's quarterlies knew that it was really happening. But that was rational "knowing" and investing, as we all know, is all about emotion.
With WCOM dropping out of the ATI bidding (temporarily or permanently?), it's clear that investors are waiting for the other shoe to drop on NXTL. If NXTL were to say publicly that they were not for sale, the mo-mo guys would bail. Otherwise I think the stock will break last year's high. At that point, a pop to the all time high isn't out of the question, given positive news. Did you know that there are 75+/- million shares in the float and that the shares traded over the last 9 sessions = 70 million? IOW, almost the entire float has turned over since 12/29/98.
Is NXTL likely to say that they're not for sale? I don't think so because much of what they've done in recent months seems to point to behind the scenes negotiation. Exhibit A is the L3 bailout. The ONLY reason that happened is an acquirer would already have fiber and NXTL decided to strip itself of all potential duplication. Down the road if it turns out that NXTL doesn't make a deal, it's never too late to secure fiber. Or NXTL could buy it on the cheap from its Next cousins.
Thanks for the comments on the chart.
Arnie |
