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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 652.56

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4:00 PM EST

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To: E. Graphs who wrote (3730)	1/12/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) of 99985

"Doom" isn't in my vocabulary, high probability trades are. This additional chart might help. You're right in pointing out 1/03/94 to 1/03/95 a/d line didn't portend doom... however there was no gain to being in the market then either. To refine this a little look at this chart, then go to the current chart of the same calculation. Note that in 94> 95 time frame it held its base support and trended up, now its holding flat to down with rising averages. That's a simple divergence that says there's a rotation of ownership going on. I don't like the cliche of smart money being replaced by new money but the idea works. Its currently a weak position at these levels. Historical:http://decisionpoint.com/HistCharts/ADVolFiles/advol9496.html Current: decisionpoint.com The A/D volume needs to break the 7/28/98 high for me to feel sanguine. Regarding the length of time to be concerned about, I'm a very short term trader looking to take advantage of extremes which need to correct. The "trend" long term in the market will most always be up as populations grow and new wealth is created. Short term insights can also yield very good profits.

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