ADSL Central Office Equipment Market to Rise Six-Fold by 2002 According to Allied Business Intelligence
OYSTER BAY, N.Y., Jan. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. forecasts the asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) central office equipment market as reaching almost $465 million per year in the US after the turn of the century, rising from $72.1 million in 1998. This market includes line cards and digital subscriber line access multiplexers (DSLAMs) as their main components.
In a new report to be released by Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. (ABI), an Oyster Bay, NY-based research firm, changes in the US local phone company central office are explored through the markets for new equipment. The report, ''Central Office Equipment and the Broadband Paradigm'' covers the various xDSL technologies, especially ADSL and HDSL, ISDN, multi-service ATM/IP/frame relay edge and core switches, and central office voice switches. These are the major technologies that are being driven forward by increasing consumer and business use of data networks such as corporate LANs and the Internet.
The ADSL market is the next step after analog modems, though the market will be limited in the first few years by pricing and availability issues. Market growth is expected after the introduction of equipment meeting a proposed splitterless ADSL solution, G.Lite, which will allow economies of scale in the production of customer equipment and improve the time, ease and cost of installation. G.Lite will permit the installation of ADSL without having to send a technician to the customer premises.
''As local phone company rollouts of this product increase, economies of scale from the production of central office equipment and greater familiarity with the product will lower end user prices, further increasing the market. This, in turn, will further speed market growth as the availability of more bandwidth will result in increased usage of that bandwidth for new media content,'' said Marc Liggio, senior analyst with ABI.
However, ADSL will not become as ubiquitous as modems. Because an ADSL line card has to be installed at the other end of the customer's telephone line, it requires an extra step and, in many cases, an extra installation charge. Cost to consumers is likely to be higher than for an analog modem on a second phone line.
As a result of this, the market for central office equipment will reach a peak in 2002 at $464.6 million. It is likely that the market size will decline slowly from this point thereafter. The reason for this is two-fold. First, over the years covered by the report, the price of line cards and DSLAMs will be decreasing. Although most price declines will have taken place by 2002, there will still be some slight declines of a few percent per year thereafter.
Second, for DSLAMs, local phone companies will be installing them based in part on expected demand for the next year. As the number of new installations reaches a plateau after 2002, so will the number of DSLAM purchases.
Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research thinktank specializing in communications and emerging technology markets. ABI publishes strategic research on the broadband, wireless, and electronics industries as well as findings on new technology-driven markets such as home automation, human-machine interface systems, and intelligent transportation systems. Details of these studies can be found at alliedworld.com. Or call 516-624-3113 for more info.
SOURCE: Allied Business Intelligence, Inc.
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