"the cup is half full" view for semiconductors and fabs:
<<"The industry completely ignored the warning signs in 1997, and it kept investing at 225 miles per hour," said Jean-Philippe Dauvin, group vice president and chief economist at ST Microelectronics, who presented an industry forecast before the annual meeting.
According to the European chip executive, the industry ended up closing 26 wafer fabs in 1998, or about 10% of its capacity, after the false recovery signs of 1997. And, chip makers canceled or postponed $38 billion of planned investments, he added. >>
Taken from: semibiznews.com
At about $1B per fab that represents another 35 fabs cancelled or postponed, resulting in a significant 25% cumulative haircut off planned fab capacity when added to the 10% closure number cited above.
Now we have growth news looking forward:
Tuesday January 12, 9:06 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release
Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers Appear Poised for
Recovery
New consumer and industrial technologies driving growth
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 12, 1999--After a three-year sales drought, including a steep downturn in 1998, the semiconductor industry appears poised for recovery in mid to late 1999...
biz.yahoo.com
This article calls for a return to historic 18.6% growth rate in the coming months and years.
With much of the industry dependent on contracted fab in Taiwan and Singapore, and fab gestation about 12 - 24 months, this could lead to capacity constraint situations by the end of this year. Possibly customer based allocations of supply.
semibiznews.com
Meanwhile, chaebol arm-wrestling continues, Hyundai looking to consume LG Semicon capacity and become one of the largest DRAM fabbers in the world:
semibiznews.com
The worm has turned. |
