Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 0.896

-0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Telemarker who wrote (11457)	1/12/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (3) of 22640

Telemark...welcome. Thanks for the kind words...seems like I've been here forever. Seems the risk on selling UBB 10 puts @ 1.5 is pretty darn slim. All time low is around 7.5 if I memory serves...and this was during a brief period of herd mentality selling. Just doesn't seem that things are as bad as last fall. As Howard points out, could be trouble if much of the government debt is state related and they default, but as I stated earlier, seems we're pricing in Brazil ceasing to exist. Don't have any feel for how a devaluation might affect banks either, but seems max devaluation would be around 10%...at least on a first attempt. I personally don't think it'll happen. Worst case...I don't know that I'd even try that one, but I have to believe it couldn't be as bad as last year. In the telecom arena, a large portion of the Bovespa indes, we now have 12 underlying pieces to value rather than one. Many seem absurdly priced now to me. Revenues are practically guaranteed to grow. The stub...I'm holding. If I didn't already own it, don't know I'd get involved. Many seem to feel that it could be worth up to 1/2 when and if cashed out. There are some SEC documents at georgeson.com where you can review assets etc and try to form your own conclusions. Just search on TBR from their main menu. Would appreciate your thoughts on the above issues if you are so inclined. Sounds like you've been following long enough to understand this situation. Are you looking at TBH, selected babies, or just UBB? Maybe David or someone else can comment further. sf

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