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Technology Stocks : Data Broadcasting Corp. (DBCC)

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To: Bear Down who wrote (3022)1/12/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: ztect  Read Replies (2) of 5102
 
Hey Bear...what a day, indeed..

How's the weather on the South Carolina coast?

Anyway, watching CNBC today and heard a glib analysis of DBCC on CNBC.

I say glib because there was the correlation on what the share price of MarketWatch had to be to justify DBCC's current rise.

Maybe you heard it. The reporter stated that for DBCC to justify its rise in valuation, MKTW had to hit a high of 200.

This thinking wasn't dissimilar from thoughts I've read expressed on this thread.

However, IMO there is a fundamental flaw in this analysis.

DBCC prior valuation was based on last quarter's earnings before anyone even heard of MarketWatch, which the company DBCC formed in 1996.

DBCC's actual valuation has to reflect the projected earnings it will receive from the MarketWatch site....not just the MKTW IPO.

Two ways internet sites generate revenues are by offering paid services and by selling advertising space.

Sites that receive more page hits can charge more for their advertising space because more business want to place their ads where people will see them.

Marketwatch page hit totals have been going up exponentially since the relationship with CBS was established. Marketwatch's time sensitive data provided by DBCC and up to the minute and in depth news generated by CBS is making Makretwatch quickly into the LEADING online financial news provider. Brief.com has very good reason to worry.

This leadership status was confirmed via the recent AOL deal with CBS.

The leadership status is obtained and MKTW has quickly become an expensive place for advertisers to place adds because MKTW has so many ways to direct "web traffic" to its site.

Traffic is generated on the internet via AOL and on TV via the future AOL TV.

Traffic is generated via radio and again on television by CBS. Plus everyone recognizes the familiar CBS "eye". Logo Identity is incredibly important. The CBS eye is omnipresent.

Traffic is generated per the recent news of the agreement with get2net. This web traffic is offered as a service to travellers in transit so they can have access to news as its breaking. Monday's news was important because it further displays that CBS and DBCC fully understand that webtraffic is generated not only when you turn on your computer and not only by those already online.

Because of these multi-faceted ways to get people to visit the MarketWatch site that CBS and DBCC have conceived, MKTW watch will not only be the leading "financial news portal" but MKTW will be the leading model for creating a profittable online site (even more so than Yahoo).

Now who benefits most from this? The companies that own the largest parts of it and derive the most revenue from it. Namely DBCC even more so than CBS, because MKTW has a greater impact on DBC's bottom line than it does on that of huge player like CBS.

So, this is my guess for what transpires with DBCC share price...May go down immediately prior to and after IPO and all MALL analogists will say I told you so. But the price will stabalize than move back up gradually, then pop again once DBC releases it current financials due at the end of this month or at the beginning of next month.

Contrarian that I am, especially after a day like today, I am setting a six week price target for DBC shares at $100. Though the short term may just see a dip into the upper 20's.

DBC HAS TRANSITIONED ITSELF INTO A MAJOR INTERNET PLAYER

In my opinion only....of course. Care to discuss?

ztect
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