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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Cytokine1 who wrote (6243)1/12/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Vector1  Read Replies (2) of 9719
 
Greetings from H&Q

As Dick Vitale might say "Awesome baby"

The following are my thoughts from the main presentation:
Biogen presented in the main ballroom and it was packed with people standing three
deep in the back. Vincent made an excellent presentation reminding people that he
joined the company as CEO in 85 when the company was close to Bankrupt. It was
Vincent who was instrumental is fixing the balance sheet, putting the company on solid
financial footing and developing Avonex.

He then talked about the progress and momentum of Avonex. 31,000 US patients at
year end and 13,000 in Europe. I won't repeat what was in the press release but
earnings and rev for the 4th q exceeded my expectations. They did not give an estimate
for 99 but put up a slide that showed $700m in sales for 99. They also suggested that
there would be slight bottom line margin improvements between now and 20001. Back
of thevelope v1 estimates show $2.55-2.75 in EPS in 99. A lot will depend on the
R&D spend which is ramping up.
Avonex has a 2-1 market share lead in the US. Internal goal of 100,000 patients by
2001. Evidence is growing showing the benefit of early tretment to slow brain atrophy.
We could be looking at a billion dollar drug by 2001-2002.

More to come
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