Ligand (LGND) Breakout! Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!

LGND 203.18

-1.4%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: medsunman who wrote (27385)	1/13/1999 2:53:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (4) of 32384

Great reports. I was also at the LGND presentation and the breakout. I agree with accessment in almost every respect. I will however add the following. The point made on Targretin is that although it may have perfectly acceptable side effect profile as a cancer drug the tolerances for a metabolic disease are much higher. Reading the tea-leaves we are 18 months from a second generation compound in human trials. I am surprised and distressed at Ligand pushing Ontak for NHL. They were asked the question which portion of the market they are going after and I could not believe the answer was low grade refractory. Talk about a crowded market. I was sure he would have said intermediate or high grade. They plan to run a trial for patients who have failed Rituxan. However by the time they are through the phase III Bexxar will be approved and will be the gold standard. Bexxar's results with refractory low grade NHL is remarkable. Although Ontak has a different mechanism of action the chances of achieving Bexxar like results with as benign a side effect profile are slim. Even if they are able to establish sufficient efficacy for approval they will have a very weak position in the market. The NHL trials are not going to be cheap. Where is the risk reward analysis. Very disappionting. The more I analyze this company the more clear it is to me that in the medium term returns are going to be based on the outcome of the Targretin phase II in breast cancer. If efficacy stand alone or in combination with tamox are shown them we will see very substantial share appreciation. If not LGND will continue to be a company with great science, lots of potential and an underperforming stock. V1

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