Howard:
Take a look at the percentage of that GDP growth which was a "build for inventory", and this has been going on for 3 quarters.
Earnings growth down now for four quarters in a row. Government corporate tax receipts have been falling even longer (which says something about the accounting)
Some of the big brokerage firms are calling a recession in Q1, 1999.
U.S. consumers are now exhibiting net negative savings.
U.S. bonds locked up for five weeks last Fall
Many large companies are closing plants and laying off hundreds of thousands of workers (which is the thing that I personally think will do this tulip in,....these are the "big pay" jobs, not the hamburger flippers, although even those guys and gals are getting hit, according to the Golden Arches recent comments). Boeing alone will clobber the West coast as its layoffs take hold. A good example,...Phillips is closing 123 plants this coming year
Trade deficit,...off the graph.
Balance of Payments?,....no longer describable in normal terms.
U.S. dollar,...down a third against the Yen in a few weeks.
One could go on and on. If foreign investors ease up with respect to the sums they send to the U.S, things will turn ugly quickly. To me, they are just starting to do just that.
Mike's comment is accurate
Best, Earlie |
