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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2721)	1/13/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: DenverTechie	Read Replies (1) of 12823

First of all, Frank, I think the market's reaction yesterday to SBC's announcement yesterday on @Home's stock was way out of proportion to the actual "news". Second, I think that ADSL's shortcomings have been well documented previously on this thread. It is no "silver bullet" for high speed access. Don't want to go over all the problems again, but we all know they are substantial. Third, the impact on cable modem service will be to raise the bar on customer service, which has been probably the cable modem service's Achilles Heel. I totally object to the way the press characterizes the services as simply "dedicated service" for ADSL vs. "shared service" for cable modems. We all know it's not that cut and dried. These articles like the one you posted contain so much hype and hyperbole you might think they were written by ex-White House speech writers. The cable industry has known for some time now that their lead time in front of ADSL roll out was limited. I have advocated that they achieve maximum market share as quickly as possible, and I think they have done that, as much as possible. Some of the service glitches you've seen are because they wanted to get market share as fast as possible. Why? Because in the communications services business, market share is king. It is vital to survival. People rarely change their service provider unless: a) the customer service is so horrible you've just got to change b) the price difference is so big the change is compelling (sometimes not even then if the service has been great) c) the technology makes the old service pale in comparison (digital satellite video vs. analog cable) In most cases, service churn is minimal for services like this. Since cable modems have been pegged to achieve up to 80% market share by 2002 by various research organizations, I think the ADSL announcements will have maybe a 5% impact overall. Look at this article on the subject that came out today. zdnet.com To answer the equipment question, yes, SBC was part of the Alcatel ADSL procurement consortium.

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