I concur with your scenario. For me, the strongest evidence that Valence has been dealing seriously with customer programs for months is found in:
1) The insider buying binge in late August/September, to the tune of several million $$. (Followed by a reported Bert Roberts purchase several weeks ago.) biz.yahoo.com
2) The production worker & supervisor hiring binge of last Fall.
Message 6295092
3) The relaxation by Castle Creek of financing terms - an apparent move to stay in the game when alternative financing was suggested.
biz.yahoo.com
4) The acceptance by Bert Roberts, Chairman of WorldCom, of a board seat, when he presumably has better things to do than associate himself with a troubled start-up.
biz.yahoo.com
5) The statement by Dawson to shareholders (reported here) that he has ordered additional equipment.
Message 6801137
All of these are serious indicators, IMO, that the company is engaged in late-stage business dealings that involve a movement out of development and into manufacturing. And, after observing Dawson's public statements and actions for a year, I don't believe he's about to lose this opportunity to the Japanese. This is just a hunch, but I think fence-sitters are about to be left hacking in a cloud of dust.
I listened to Michael Dell's Schwab conference call last Spring, and this guy - as just one example - is not going to sit around and wait for the entire industry to adopt a new, highly desirable technology. He spent most of the CC talking about how Dell's customers weren't interested in sub-1000 computers, but instead wanted the newest technology just as soon as they could get it. He emphasized over and over that Dell's business model was designed to accomplish just that.
John Dessauer has recently reported to readers that MOT is claiming brisk sales of it's line of handsets. Another company Dessauer follows, Ericsson, has fallen behind the curve in this area, and Dessauer has stated that it wouldn't surprise him if Ericsson met this challenge with a new line of state-of-the-art phones.
While I'm not making a direct connection between Valence and the above mentioned companies, I would simply argue that within the target markets, there is plenty of incentive for adoption of this technology - AHEAD of the competition. I fully expect the adventurous OEM's to get their act together on this in time for the Fall product season, which, to me, means cutting deals, reserving capacity, and building inventory NOW.
Meanwhile, Lev Dawson is strangely silent about progress now - offering plenty of "no comments." Given his and other insiders' activities in recent months, it looks to me like customer confidentiality and non-disclosure arrangements are coming into play. Take the above FWIW. Just a personal hunch. |
