Steve, you have a selective memory,but to refresh it without going through the trouble of trying to find the multiple posts that I did on the matter, I will repeat my opinion. The many forms of DSL will allow for broadband access to the home as a second option to cable. The largest problem is and has been standards. They just formed an entity similar to Cablelabs that will attempt this process. Until then, many companies are going different ways which insures no economies of scale or a united front to the cable MSO's. Second, cable is far in front from an investment, upgrade and standards basis. Regardless, that will not stop certain telco's from moving forward with high speed internet access service.
If you do a little homework, you will learn that DSL is very limiting as to how many people can get the high speed service. They are working on many different "last mile" solutions and "fire wire"into the home. They will have some sucess in this penetration. Their pipe and transport method will never be better than the coax/fiber optic hybrid. REgardless, they will offer high speed access to those who don't yet have an offereing from cable. As for video service, they will have a very tough time. As you know, that would involve not only starting a video service, installing a new line and getting the FCC, carrige agreements and then content. Just a refresher, Time Warner, Comcast and others own much of the content. Telco's are behind the 8 ball.
AT&T is the best example. WHy didn't they buy a RBOC and upgrade for DSL over TCI. WHy isn't Paul Allen buying Telco's? The reason is technical in nature and strategic in a financial sense.
Have no doubt, the telco's will attempt to offer video and at one point VOD. This is good for CCUR and any other server vendor because the same equipment is needed to provide the service. The difference is the protocal and delivery pipe. That means the RBOC in Time Warners area will buy servers to attempt to offer a competing service. This means two servers serving the same set of 1,000 home node. This is business that is out there on the curve, but RBOC's usind DSL will be another customer at one point. |
