A move in the right direction, or yet another illusion? Comments?
From IHT:
New Coalition Is Expected To Press Reforms in Japan
Stronger Defense Links With U.S. Also Likely
By Kevin Sullivan, Washington Post Service
TOKYO - Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi joined Thursday with an old political adversary to form a coalition government that is expected to move Japan more aggressively toward financial reforms and stronger defense ties with the United States.
The coalition between Mr. Obuchi's Liberal Democratic Party and the small Liberal Party, headed by a mercurial reformer, Ichiro Ozawa, was widely regarded as a move that will strengthen Mr. Obuchi's hand in dealing with Japan's worst recession in 50 years.
The coalition will give the prime minister a stronger majority in the powerful lower house of Parliament, helping him win passage of key financial reform legislation. It will also force the Liberal Democrats, whose appetite for real reforms is often questioned, to adopt some of Mr. Ozawa's more-aggressive positions toward financial reform.
''Mr. Ozawa has a very strong character and convictions, so it is very likely that Mr. Obuchi will be pushed by Mr. Ozawa from now on,'' said Tomohisa Sakanaka, director of the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Tokyo.
But some skeptics see the new coalition as little more than a politically expedient deal between two weak leaders that will result in little significant change in policies to correct Japan's deep economic problems. They note that the new coalition will not command a majority in the upper house of Parliament, which could still force delays and compromise with opposition parties.
Mr. Obuchi, despite a successful political trip to Europe during the last week, has extraordinarily low popularity ratings and presides over a weakened party that has lost its traditional monopoly on power. Mr. Ozawa, a former Liberal Democratic Party kingmaker whose defection helped topple the party in a 1993 revolt, has become a largely marginal player in Japanese politics in the last couple of years.
The coalition marks his return to prominence, although with just one Liberal Party member in Mr. Obuchi's 18-member cabinet, some in Japan question how much influence Mr. Ozawa will actually command.
The new coalition is also expected to help Mr. Obuchi win passage of
legislation to expand military ties with the United States. That new
relationship was announced with great fanfare by President Bill Clinton and Ryutaro Hashimoto, who was then prime minister, in September 1997. But bills to turn the pronouncements into policy have languished ever since in a rudderless Parliament divided by disagreements on Japan's constitutional restrictions on all but defensive military activity.
Members of Mr. Obuchi's party have had deep misgivings about the new
arrangement, which would allow Japanese troops and ships to support the United States in any military conflict in East Asia. Some party members have argued that Japanese participation in such conflicts would be unconstitutional.
Mr. Ozawa, who made a name for himself with a book calling on Japan to
become a ''normal nation,'' argues for swift passage of the defense
legislation. The two parties have not settled their differences on the issue, but most analysts say it will now be easier for those bills to pass.
President Clinton, during a visit to Japan last year, urged swift passage of the new defense guidelines.
North Korea figured prominently in the negotiations over a coalition and in Mr. Clinton's insistence that the bills pass soon. Pyongyang startled Japan in August when it tested a surprisingly powerful rocket over Japanese territory. Alarmed politicians in Japan immediately stepped up their debate over the nation's defense, helping to pave the way for a deal with Mr. Ozawa.
Mr. Obuchi and Mr. Ozawa also agreed to a compromise that would allow
Japan to participate in most United Nations peacekeeping activities. They also agreed to an Ozawa proposal that the number of cabinet ministers be reduced from 20 to 18.
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