Alex, thanks for properly addressing reply #38. It could't have been done better!
We both seem to have given this a great deal of thought. I believe you are a better analyst, since you mentioned a due diligence you were working on, while I am an engineer. I would like your opinion on my year-end prediction of $20+/sh.
We know that the first line will run slowly at first and will be set up for different products and speeds etc. I'm almost sure the 4, 7 or 21 million batt/yr/line numbers are for 24 hr production. The second line will most likely be for cellphone batteries, and would run continuously for large OEM orders, as would subsequent lines.
Forgive me for stating the obvious, but I would expect the share price to be driven first by contract announcements, then by analysts projections and finally by actual earnings. The initial steady growth rate of 1 line/qtr and next year's Korean startup should help.
Neglecting Alliant Tech, with the $10 and $20 wholesale figures previously mentioned, the company's target of 40% profit and perhaps a $1.25/sh operating expense, what do you think the earnings, P/E, share price etc might be by Dec 31? I know it will take a lot of assumptions. I hope there are no penalties for thinking out loud!
Thanks in advance |
