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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil
TBH 0.956+6.7%Nov 24 3:59 PM EST
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To: Steve Fancy who wrote (11656)1/14/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: Gary105  Read Replies (1) of 22640
 
The situation in Brazil is as follows:

1. Political situation (ie large state debt payment suspension) is compounding economic situation.

2. Mild to deep recession this year followed by recovery early to late next year, timing depending on how decisively reforms are enacted.

3. Further managed devaluations of currency (about 15% this year total) and 15% next year.

4. Probability of spread of economic problem to many other Latin American countries with exception of Mexico and Chile.

5. Key to Brazil recovery - political unity and prompt reform enactment. Brazil is at the edge now. The crisis is real. The duration and magnitude will be determined by what is done or not done on reforms over the next quarter.

6. Key to spread to other Latin American countries - investor confidence.
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