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Big--re EW on osx stocks--In most cases they went down from the all time highs in an A-B-C where the A down was a 5 wave, followed by a 3 wave B up and we are now nearing the end of a 5 wave C down(C must be 5 since A was, to keep it simple).--- So far on the C, we have quite clearly already done subwaves 1down-2up-3down hard. I am becoming increasingly suspicious that we only just completed the 4up a few days ago (after 4-5 months of 'sideways' movement that look to some like triple bottoms etc)--and we are now in the midst of a 5 to slight new lows.(eg most gapped down)---- Why do I say this? Mainly because 4's are usually complex corrective waves not simple zig zags up. It is quite common in dealing with 4's that they will do an a-b-c up followed by another a-b-c down, maybe even slightly below the start of the first a-b-c, and then be followed by the last wave up to complete the pattern (like a 'flat' sideways movementwhen looked at in totality). They eat up time and give the oscillators enough time to work off their oversold condition. The telltale sign is when the second a-b-c down to then new lows looks like a THREE wave structure and not a FIVE wave. If it was a 5, then that would have been wave 5 of the entire C Wave referred to at the beginning of this piece (with the 4 ended earlier)-but if a 3 wave, it is NOT and instead still part of the same wave 4 that we have been in for 4-5 months.---This is what concerns me in looking at a number of the osx charts. I am now very cautious that all we witnessed in the last few weeks was the end, finally, of wave 4up, within a 5 wave structure (the 5th being the final move down. So, in contrast to a number of traders on this thread, i am not yet prepared to buy back in just yet. If, for example RDC managed to print 9.00 or a nit lower, that would be a new low and the end of the 5th wave I referred to above. ---I'm not wedded to this stance, just 60/40 in favour of new lows on many stocks. Until i see deeper reteacements, I'm not yet prepared to dive in. I do not like to see downside gaps at this point in the downtrend. Gaps down often portrend more weakness to follow (ie start of the 5the wave down). My 2c |
