If you're not interested in a discussion about MSFTs future in the face of Java, skip this posting (it is rather long).
Yes, it's true that MSFT can lose much of its proprietary edge because of Java. However:
MSFT has their act together on many fronts (unlike in years past):
1. They have proven that they can act quickly, as evidenced by the sudden shift to the Internet. This switch in focus happened extremely quickly. IE 3.0 is considered as good as (and some would say better than) Navigator 3.0, and they caught up in such a short time.
2. They pump out new versions of quality software at an astounding
rate. This is aided by the fact that they have some of the
best engineers money can buy, and they have learned how to
componentize their libraries/tools/classes.
3. They have such a dominant position and incredibly high profit margins and growth rate, which results in having large amounts of cold, hard cash, which in turn allows them to continue to buy the best engineers, companies, etc. thay they need to keep their dominant position and incredibly high profit margins and growth
rate, which results ... Well, you get the idea of how this gets kind
of self-perpetuating.
4. While the OS market is considered to be a commodity, that is only
coming to be true for Windows 95. On the other hand, NT still
has good margins, as it sells into the Corporate IT market, and has
much more value. In addition, NT is growing at a rate that will
quickly outstrip other OSes and will be the dominant OS in the
corporate market soon.
5. In the area of MSFTs cash cow, they now have the newest
version, which is coming out to rave reviews. This will ensure
that it still is their cash cow, even as they create more cash cows.
6. They will embed Captive-X into all of their products, thus still
retaining control.
With regard to some of your other points:
1. MSFT products have more rigorous testing than any of their
competitors.
It seems many of your arguments apply to the MSFT of years past.
They are no longer the company struggling to gain dominance anymore... They've done it already, and with mucho cash to spare.
Thus they can afford to do all of the things that they didn't in the past, such as build great products and test them well, while others struggle from going under by releasing products before they're ready.
2. They don't always need to ship before others. Because of their
dominance and reputation, people will wait for them to ship, if
MSFT says that it is working on a solution.
3. As I've said, MSFT is creating other cash cows other than Office.
Internet-upgraded Windows 95, NT, compilers, Internet
development tools, Internet applications, etc.
4. The PC market has come a long way, but far from completely
mature. Also, you will see the merging of TV, phone, fax, Internet,
etc. in the home. This market of convergence is just beginning
and MSFT is poised to dominate here.
5. Yes, the OS is fast becoming a commodity, but this is only in the home market. Java is not going to obviate the need for a highly scalable, reliable OS (at least not in the Corporate world).
Moreover, MSFT still has the dominant OSes that run the most software, and isn't going to change anytime in the near future
(i.e. at least 2-3 years out).
6. You did not give any reason why SUN will somehow dominate
just because Java dominates.
Sorry this got so long, but I did warn you at the beginning. |
