I can't tell you much about INTV. I know a bit about Centigram. They have a very solid voicemail platform the Series 6. It was almost a year late and their stock has taken a beating.
About 4 years ago, CGRM had a second public offering where Approx 2 million shares were sold at $31.00 (I have been watching them since before that time). The stock wnet to near $48, be fore starting to head south. The quarter results were record but missed the estimates by 3 pennies. Within two weeks, the stock was at $20. The next quarter results were also dissapointing and the stock went into the teens. At this point several funds sold, and the price dipped below $11. Note that Centigram has a book value near $12. Since then it has moved to the mid $20's and back several times.
Anyway, they relesed their new platform over a year ago, and it is doing very well. The question is when will the hold recomendation be taken off? I think the next 2 quarters will be very important. THe funds are probably just a littler shy of this one due to the last beating they took (my old room-mate's mutual fund lost nearly %15 that year, mostly because of their large CGRM investment).
Personally, I am long on CGRM. I got in in the 11-14 range, so the current slump is not that bad. I hope that they will have good numbers this quarter so that the stock will start moving. It has been nearly brain dead for a good while.
Another note about CGRM, they have good management. THeir CEO George Sollman is very well known here and in Washington. The was instrumental in overturning the shareholder lawsuit initiative, and also succesfully lobbied against some bad bills that were in the U.S Congress.
As you can guess, I have been watching this stock for a while.
5 resons why I feel CGRM is a fair investment.
1) the stock has shown high stability at $12. Not likely to move much lower. The company is worth nearly $12 a share.
2) They have good technology. The Series 6 Voice Mail and the Tru-VOice test-to-speech are winners.
3) they have strong balance sheet.
4) They have announced plans to aquire VOiceTel. The "McDonalds" of Voice Mail Service providers.
5) They have an excellent CEO.
6) If the next couple of quarters are good, the stock should move very well.
1 good reason why you might not want to get into CGRM
1) in spite of all the plusses, this is a brain-dead stock. It has moved vary little in the past 6 mos. Thus far, they have not been able to turn their strengths into profits (i.e check the PE).
Centigram has plans for substantial growth over the next couple of years. All that remains to be seen is whether or not they can do it!
I have been watching Octel for a while. At $17 it looks like a good short term buy. What are your feelings on that?
Good luck. |
