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I wanted to comment about the analyst upgrades recently, especially the gentleman who went way out on a limb with the end 99 price target of 24. If that is true, then he must belive the stock to be extremely overvalued at this point in time. He is basically suggesting 4X289 million, or an increase in market value of $1.16 billion. Let's look oh so simply at this from a "big picture" perspective. What are four in-orbit GEOs worth? The sats to be launched are the best we have at this point, worth at least $250 million each in orbit. At least that is what they will cost to get there. That adds $1 billion to Loral's worth. Obviously, they have some value on the ground right now that is being added in the current LOR price(maybe). What is 42% of 44 more G* sats in orbit? At simple value of the assets, that is $277 million. So, in essence, this analyst is saying that the value coming to Loral shareholders in 1999 is simply the value of assets put into space at cost. If we assume revenue from any of the satellites, is that not a bonus? If we assume increasing revenues from Orion 1, Telstar 4 & 5, SatMex V, Solidaridad 1 & 2, Agila II, C*, SS/L, etc., is that not a bonus as well? |
