>> Scale what?
DSL and cable have different last-mile scaling issues and the providers of each have different abilities and contexts in which to respond to last-mile proliferation.
ATHM has a practical strategy for load-leveling in their sub-net, based on a homogeneous approach in which they control the whole sub-net in topological breadth and content-to-wire depth.
The DSL sub-nets are impoverished insofar as a specific, practical approach to load-leveling ... there are initiatives (concepts) but they aren't going to stop PacBell from melting their NAPs in '99-'00.
Short-term -- DSL and cable appear to compete, broadband becomes mainstream, performance is an ongoing struggle, new applications appear, attempts are made at standardizing distributed web services (ATHM leads in practice, must leverage lead into standards position), penetration approaches 25% of US homes.
Mid-term -- DSL and cable mature, new DSL flavors proliferate, distributed web service becomes commonplace.
Long-term -- optical and wireless slide in underneath and eventually dominate. Copper is scavenged for use in jewelry and kitchenware.
My view:
-- DSL and cable fight for market share
-- they have their growing pains and build new software infrastructures
-- while they are doing that, optical overtakes them
ATHM survives and prospers. Transformed, it becomes one of 2 or 3 information utilities of the 21st century. |
