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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 236.89-0.6%3:56 PM EST
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To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (42274)1/15/1999 4:24:00 PM
From: Dave Gahm  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
Tom, "Garbage in, garbage out". Adjusting Niles' spreadsheet to reflect the 10% drop in megabits for Q1FY99 results in 16% lower DRAM revenues for 99 and 2000. If you assume that the cost side of the equation stays roughly the same, this is enough to turn his estimate of a .70 profit for 99 into a loss. For 2000 his estimate of $2.70 becomes about .30. Of course it is possible that MU will ramp production faster than predicted and at some point catch up, but this certainly makes his $200 price target look even more foolish than it did.

Regards, Dave
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