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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 29.81-4.2%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: William L. Molair II who wrote (8309)1/16/1999 9:48:00 AM
From: Tharos  Read Replies (1) of 17367
 
I think what he has been saying is actually a summation of many bits of info posted by many individuals on this thread.

In late 1996, when the PIII trial began, the historical mortality rate when treated by traditional methods was 20%. In the PI/II trial the Neuprex treated death rate was something like 4%.

Since then we have noticed that people treated with Neuprex end up well and whole. We have also argued that the one death during the PI/II trial was probably due more to the kid being obese than to any other factor. We have also noticed traditional treatment for severe pediatric meningococcemia (meningococcal septicæmia) has improved and the death rates have fallen below 20%.

If the trial assumed 1996 death rates as a constant, then treatment improvements in either group would affect the test. In this case it is the length or duration of the test that is affected. If they originally said they needed 24 deaths, it would take 200 patients -- 100 placebo and 100 Neuprex. If you assume the Neuprex treatment group has 2% deaths (number pulled off the top of my head) and the traditional treatment group now has 10% death rate, then a trial based upon total deaths would take twice as many patients to accrue 24 deaths.
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