OK, Singapore, Mr Tay, cdmaOne, WWeb and GSM! Let's start here:
Message 7319509
People can read it and compare it with your last post. Nod your head if you get the same meaning as Tero! Don't forget to turn your digital Web cameras on first.
Tero, that is exactly what one would expect. Building a network, even a cdmaOne one costs many shekels or whatever they use in Singapore. Singapore is an island country. They have a couple of networks already. Those networks are functioning okay. Until they get high data rate [HDR], cdma2000 or WWeb technology advances or run into capacity problems, there is little reason to upgrade to cdmaOne from their legacy systems.
Certainly there would be some who would like to use their cellphones in USA and Singapore but they are few and far between. So the status quo makes sense for them.
To read into that the demise of cdmaOne is a bizarre distortion of reality akin to self-immolation by determined biffing of cellphones onto forecourts after squirting gasoline onto the ground.
CdmaOne network construction costs are rapidly declining as competition mounts so the timing of new network buildout is crucial to financial success. Too early, you pay too much, get a legacy system, don't get enough customers and lose your shirt. Too late, you get a good network, but prices per minute have crashed, customers are all happily ensconced elsewhere and you lose your shirt.
It is entirely possible from a network operator's point of view, not being privy to all the shenanigans going on in IPR, chip rates, bells, whistles and synchronisation that cdmaOne systems might not act as an upgrade base to WWeb. The fact that GSM definitely won't other than the gizzards attached to the landline aspects is irrelevant to their decision on whether to buy cdmaOne now or WWeb or cdmaOne later.
If that is the front line, I'd say Tay's comments moved the line a lot further against GSM - he said it is a question of when, not if, they go to CDMA. Really, take a look. Don't read the Yahoo! edited version.
On cdmaOne subscribers, I think I won the prediction competition - mine was 23,141,593 early in 1998 for the end of the year. Which was way above expectations. It seems that is about where it ended up. Some returned faulty handsets [a LOT I suspect] will need to be deducted to get actual subscribers. I returned one. Your suggestion that subscriber growth is questionable isn't borne out by the facts. I'll come up with my 1999 figures when we get confirmation of the 1998 totals. CdmaOne growth is very rapid.
Similarly to Singapore, China will be taking it easy on deciding what to do with respect to cdmaOne. They have got plenty to go on with in GSM, they have got political sorting out to do on PLA owning telecoms, they have got China/China/Foreign joint venture rules to sort out and they too would like to wait and see what happens with WWeb and they know things are getting cheaper while they wait and functionality is improving. I too am hopeful for China and cdmaOne.
Maurice
PS: Yes Tero, you succinctly stated the underlying truth about cellphones and gas stations - Esso/Exxon is frightened of being sued for billions by OJ's jury being reassigned in an affirmative action job creation scheme. But I didn't want to lose the opportunity to pontificate about something I know something about = petroleum and its application. |
