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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 174.01-0.3%3:59 PM EST

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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (21386)1/16/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
Gregg, Infrastructure losses! Way back about early September you said that infrastructure was turning the corner into breakeven. What went wrong? We are far from breakeven by the look of it. I hereby cancel my 70 cent profit prediction. And shrivel my revenue prediction. $80 on hold too. We can't keep pumping $100m chunks over the fence from royalties, handsets and ASICs without dinging the bottom line a grotesque amount.

On the Brazilian auction action, for fixed telephone and value added services in the northeast of Brazil. The 60 million Reals [approximately Cdn$62 million] was bid for a 20 year renewable term with payment over two years. Bell owns 34.4% WLL International Inc 34.4 Qualcomm 16.2 Liberman Group of Argentina 12.5 percent and Vicunha Group of Brazil 2.5 percent.

The Northeast region is 16 states with 90 million people, over half of Brazil's population. Major metropolitan areas covered by the license include Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and Salvador. The consortium plans to service the area primarily using fixed wireless technologies and expects to invest more than Cdn$1.5 billion in building its state-of-the art network.

Bell will be the operator.

But 20 years is a LONG time to have the spectrum. I wonder if they'll be allowed to swing into mobile in a few years in that frequency.

US$50m for 90m people with low incomes sounds a lot. That would be like $2m for New Zealand which seems way too much to me. Considering they'll only attract a small share of that 90m as customers. Say we get 10m customers, that's $10 per customer per year just to cover the spectrum cost [reducing spectrum to zero value over a 5 year period and expecting a decent return on investment]. I guess more like 2m are likely in the first 5 years, so we need more like $50 per person per year for spectrum. That is far from Gilder's vision of free spectrum.

Mquarkce
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