Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote ()	1/17/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) of 3543

"The contest: Using the following 5 stocks as an index; AMZN, YHOO, AOL, EBAY and CMGI, predict (1) when and (2) why they will fall 40% in the space of 5 consecutive trading days". 1. These stocks have moved on pure enthusiasm and easy money (i.e., liberal margin limits). While the prospects for e-commerce and how it will re-shape consumer buying patterns justifies the enthusiasm, it has been easy money that has caused this enthusiasm to reach such speculative fervor. Attempts to limit the use of borrowed money have already been placed on some internet/e-commerce stocks by some brokerage houses. I believe that the Federal Reserve (which has been behind the scene) will further request a tightening (perhaps limiting the use of borrowed money all together). The resultant "margin" calls will take the wind out of the sails of the aforementioned five (5) high flyers. I believe that this policy is being developed over the Martin Luther King weekend. So, the start of the decline will commence on Tuesday, January 19, 1999.

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