David, As I said, we had a miscommunication on the expensive comment. Your other points:
1. I also think Dell is due for some tough love and not having cheap boxes is one reason.
2. Should Apple be priced at less than 15 times eps or 1 times sales? Yes, if you believe it is at peak eps and heading into a decline, as I do. In fact, if you believe as I and anyone who is paying attention believes, that current eps are very dependent upon channel stuffing, then you are even more likely to believe it is not worth the price the market is paying. And it is not like Apple has any credibility with investors, having disappointed them so often in the past when they've totally missed the market.
Is it the most overpriced stock around? Nope. Which is one reason I do not have puts on it. Is it overpriced? Yup, in my eps scenario, it is wayyyy overpriced.
3. Saying that a co. currently at a cyclical peak is heading for trouble is always a fuzzy calculation. Obviously, they do not wake up tomorrow and say they are closing the doors. What I see happening is a long period of deterioration from this peak. They have a loyal but graying group of devotees who will take a while to die down to below breakeven. But the stock will not wait until the receivor is at the door, unless they change their name to Micron Tech.
MB |
