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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (35269)1/17/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: John Carpenter  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
SLB was just barely over a split adjusted $10 in 1986. I know
that everyone assumes that the industry is in such better
shape to weather a downturn now than it was then. But, we
cannot assume that there is more return than risk potential
at this point. SLB is just as likely(I would say more likely)
to head towards $10 in the next couple of years as it is to
go to $200. This sector has exhibited the characteristics
of dead money far more than relative strength in the face
of bad news. Look at the 20 year charts of SLB and GLM-
one cannot reasonably assume that there is more return
than risk potential at this point. GLM could head towards
$3- maybe lower if there's another Chpter 11 bankruptcy.
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