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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook?
ERIC 9.855-1.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: P2V who wrote (2561)1/17/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (2) of 5390
 
Clark thinks ERICY is good bet in a 5 year time frame because he believes very much in access via the air interface. I think ERICY is a good bet TODAY.

And I support this view with the evidence that -for example- those $250 billion invested in telephone switches in the US are not going to be scrapped neither next Monday nor in 5 years time. They will be there. And they are value for Telcos and its customers.

What is happening now in the telco business is that they are being forced to pass along to their customers their lower costs. Doing what the computer industry is doing since long time. (Bill Gates is not asking Congress for support, quite the contrary.) Telcos and their suppliers, are recognizing that the barriers of entry into their business are getting low and lower. (Notice those wireless Clark likes, sneaking in to prove me right.)

No one is saying just because there are computers at $399 Intel is going away. Microsoft is just making the same old stuff in new wrapping and no one is saying Bill Gates is going to finish that house in the Pacific Northwest.

I recognize that there is a lot of fat and inefficiencies need to be trimmed out of the wireline business, both in the vendors' and the telcos' camps. Slimming down is giving margin for those businesses to put out a hell of a fight against the guys that are coming to eat their bacon. Look what BT did with Ionica, Clark. Watch what Deutsche Telkom will do with its competitors. Look what the GSM crowd did with PHS in Japan. Never, ever, underestimate the capacity of the incumbents to fight off newcomers.
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