Hi Andrew, Let me see if I get this straight... there is a sell-off of the stock and some wild conjectures by some people on the thread, and all of a sudden QTR is a dog?
First, people have junked the Newcrest property, even though they had results that were not that bad, and the possibility that the drilling could help them to target the more prospective areas like the sulfide, and trench areas for the next drilling program. Now we have jumped to that conclusion...we move on to the Guinoloza property and decide because they didn't rush and put out the 2 drill results...ipso facto, the Guinoloza is dead meat... don't bother to wait for the ACTUAL results, just make an uninformed conclusion. Then we move on to the Uchumuchay and begin to speculate what the drill results will be. If they're not spectacular along the lines of say, ARP, well we'll junk that too, and they'll have to go get some more j.v.'s. What an incredible way to play the market! By feeding off the hypothesis of first one, and then another, many have concluded that this is a dog.
Will any of these properties prove to be THE property? Who knows? But I do know this, that I will give them time to do their exploration and watch the results as drilling progresses and then make a decision on whether there is potential on these properties or not. To watch the market in this environment, where games are played every day, is a formula to lose all your money.
I can't tell you how many times that I have bought and the price fell before taking off. At first I thought I must have been very wrong, and sometimes sold, only to see it turn around and make a fool out of me. A more recent example is ARP. I have heard of many who had held ARP and got tired of waiting and sold out, (and there is an example of that on the PFG thread... by maxx99, Post 11068), and those that will watch the market play to see what the tea leaves tell them only to see it run up in front of their face. Will this one do that? Who knows, but I like the prospects, and nothing yet has convinced me that I should head for the hills. The basics are still intact: good j.v's, a nice kitty, prospective properties in an excellent area, an organized approach, more j.v's to come and more properties to be drilled by Barrick as well.
Would it have been nice to get the exact timing... to get in at the bottom? Sure! But the fact is, very few do, and then it is only pure luck. In the exploration game, even if you have a good property it takes time to drill, assess, and drill again. After all these geologists don't have X-Ray eyes, and there tool is the drill...after all the geological work is done. It's rare when they can plunk a drill in the ground and come up with spectacular results on the first few holes.... to think otherwise, is just foolish.
Will any of them be a success? Only time will tell and a LOT more drilling than we have seen to date. There are those who will sit on the sidelines, those that hold, those that sell because the price went down, those that add to their position to average down and those that will watch the market play to see what the tea leaves tell them. Just ask yourself if you can take the heat, or if you would rather play on absolute results...and pay a higher price if they are good, or pat yourself on the back that you got out...if they are bad.
One other reason that I will stay is that there is more than one property, more than one chance to have a hit here, and I'm willing to wait and see if even one of them produces a winner. Far too early, as far as I'm concerned, to get carried away by chit chat on the thread that basically feeds the FEAR factor, which is a natural part of investing, and the other half of the equation: FEAR and GREED. Both can make you a loser.
Everyone should examine where they fit into this play and whether they choose to sell and run, or stay and wait. Only each individual should make that decision, but it should be made in a calm manner after assessing all the FACTS.
I had been off SI for a few days and I came back to read all these posts, and I can tell you that I was amazed at how this whole play turned, post by post, to somehow the conclusion that it was a dog and we should all run for the hills. It reminds me of psychological group therapy of the negative kind. Sort of, "The Power of Negative Thinking" Ah well, each to his own.
However anyone decides to play this, because in the end, it is YOUR decision, and should be based on your own thoughts, take the time to think your own thoughts. I learned a long time ago not to base it on the market "dujour" or on others "feelings"
I have been tracking the houses and their positions since October, and I can say that, which houses are long and which are short is very interesting. You can't judge on a day or a week, but keep track of what they are doing over a few months. This should be part of your D.D.... especially when there are sharp falls or run-ups.
Good Luck, everyone, whatever you do!
Cheers
Shirley
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