Carl, It will be interesting to see if the analysts are "pissed" enough to make a public acknowledgement and adjust their forecasts based on the correct numbers. Niles probably won't want to jeopardize future underwriting, but Kurlak with his more negative view might enjoy the chance to trash them a bit. You strike me as a square-shooter, and an ethical guy, how do you feel about being lied to by MU management? Most shareholders probably don't care if management robs banks, as long as the stock goes up, but this kind of sleaziness does usually have negative consequences for a company in the long haul. Chainsaw Al's sales number fudging at Sunbeam is the first example that comes to mind. It worked great for awhile but eventually caught up with him. I'm sure Al thought he could get the business back on track before anyone caught on, and that is probably MU's plan as well.
It is worth noting that MU would have made a profit in the 1st quarter if they had executed well, and increased bit production by 10-20%, assuming prices held. Now that they are coming off a problem quarter, and presumably have resolved the backend problems, it is possible they will show a very large actual sequential increase in bit production of 30-40%. In fact one analyst recently stated that MU upped their guidance for the quarter to 30% bit growth. If the market can absorb that without hammering prices then they will have a dandy quarter, but that strikes me as a very significant if during what is normally a lower demand quarter.
Regards, Dave |
