Chaz, if QUALCOMM and the CDG [CDMA Development Group] are correct that their chip rate is optimally efficient for data transfer in WWeb applications, then your logic is spot on.
But if a slightly higher chip rate does in fact slightly improve efficiency, which QUALCOMM has said should be tested in practise and the most efficient system should be adopted, then the backward compatibility to existing cdmaOne should be ignored because the colossal amount of WWeb equipment to be sold will make the existing cdmaOne equipment a mere drop in the ocean. One would not want to make the whole ocean pink instead of blue because the first few drops were pink simply to fit into a government pink spectrum.
As Gilder's vision of freely available spectrum gains ground, the 5MHz bandwidths, guardbands and such like will become irrelevant.
I'd rather be in the most efficient blue ocean than forever locked into a socialist pink.
But L M Ericsson needs to have some real life, fully loaded, full data rate systems operating to prove that their apparently negotiable chip rate is in fact blue and not pink. QUALCOMM needs to prove the point too.
Of course, as many technologies develop and spectrum opens up with software radios, manufacturers will move to the most efficient chip rates anyway. No world-wide, one size for all evermore is necessary. It suits the situation now, but the rate of growth of WWeb and technology developments will be so far above the technological flow rate Reynolds Number that turbulence will happen sooner rather than later so there will be fragmentation and fractalization into many chip rates, synchronisation methods, frequencies and modes.
The GSM people thought they had a world system. It never got fully off the ground before CDMA was taking over. Already, cdmaOne systems are being referred to as legacy systems! Good grief, technologies are being buried VERY fast! Group Speciale Mobile, [GSM], a government monopoly from Europe, changed the meaning to Global System for Mobile [GSM] to present a better marketing face and to present themselves as the system for the world.
I think L M Ericsson's chip rate is rot and your logic is correct. Service providers will demand the most efficient system and backward compatibility will be part of that. GSM has no backward compatibility and it is amazing how L M Ericsson is able to pull the wool over people's eyes. I suppose they have conned everyone into believing they are wearing a cloak of beautiful raiment with their VW40, so it is a small step to get them bamboozled on a chip rate and some synchronisation.
No wonder it's easy to make money in the stock market.
Isn't it interesting that such simple and such correct logic can leave you wondering if you have missed something. Since they own a big cdmaOne stake, they also get the jump on those totally bogged down in GSM. Once the WWeb decision is announced, Vodafone will suddenly look much more valuable when it is apparent that they have backed the right horse with cdmaOne, WWeb, Globalstar and QUALCOMM.
Somebody asked why they don't buy QUALCOMM. They just did! More than Gregg Powers group owns too if I remember rightly.
Also, Jon is probably right, if management is going to ditch, partner or something the infrastructure division, that will be looked on as a positive. Nothing worse than having an open wound for years on end. One could get gangrene. It is not essential to QUALCOMM success though it was to get cdmaOne off the ground.
Okay, back to $80 by 31 January.
Mquarkce |
