E. M. Edds. Sorry if I gave you the wrong impression. I still expect that there will be an IPO spin-off sometime - but after looking into things a little deeper, I am getting the impression it may be later than I initially thought.
1)When they announced the filing on September 24th, it looks to me that they were trying to stem the financial deterioration being caused by the online part of the ship. The obvious way to do this was to spin it off. However, 12 days later they announced that they sold half of .com to Bertelsmann, simultaneously raising cash and halving their losses. You can check some of the details, but that immediately meant that the IPO could not go ahead with the initial filing because of the change in ownership. In the 3 months since then, they have not bothered to file the required S form with the SEC to allow the IPO to happen ... and if you contact IR that's all they will tell you. This wouldn't bother me so much but the price action has been poor recently, with the larger blocks on the sell side. Now, I don't know what agreement was reached with Bertelsmann, but it is quite apparent that whatever it was, there is no rush to get the IPO moving.
So ... as Hoovers now has it listed as 'postponed', rather than 'TBA', there is a rather big question mark hanging over the IPO. JMHO.
2)http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?w=600&period=60&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=bb&i0=6&i1=2&i2=3&i3=4&s=linear&symbol=BKS
3)I'm long, doubled my position Thursday, sold half Friday when there was no follow-thru on a strong market day. Again, the price action was less than impressive.
4)I have no idea of the value of the university book sales, but the stock failed to respond to the announcement which was another sign of weakness imho.
I also heard them say on CNBC that anyone shopping thru the online service saves 20% over buying the book at the store. I didn't regard this announcement as being particulary good as it encourages cannibalisation of their own business at lower margins ... but thats part of the price of going on-line. I just didn't like hearing it on television !!
So ..... if you are now wondering why I am not short the stock .... well ... in a term longer than I initially envisaged, this stock will do well with the IPO announcement.... but I am not prepared to tie up capital for too long a period. There is also a very small possibility that the IPO won't be spun-off if Bertelsmann has a problem with the idea ... so there's a bigger risk in my opinion (or higher risk/reward).
But all this is just my opinion and I am often wrong.... so don't be too concerned !!. If the P/E wasn't so high I doubt I would be so concerned ... but that nags me as well just in case the overall market corrects.
Gotta go ... time for a family walk in the rain .......
Have a great weekend everyone
Stephen
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