MB:
My conversations weren't friendly, nor were they intended as such. (g)
I have little respect for them. Journalists do a bit of homework.
On another front, it will be interesting to see what happens to the dollar and the markets in the aftermath of the Brazilian cave-in. IMHO, Friday's zany euphoria won't last more than a few days as the fundamentals are just too damning. The currency flight is awesome.
Loved the talking heads yukking up the rising commodity prices of late,...too bad they don't recognize that it may not look that way if viewed in other currencies. Dollar under pressure? That's absurd. (g)
An already pressured buck, and antsy bond markets are more than whispering. While I've been bearish for a long while, I've not been among those who felt a BK was a possibility in the near term. I hate to say it, but I do now. The Euro has stripped Greenspan of ammunition and he's forced to both guard and hump that treasury mountain. It will be his undoing, perhaps soon. The attitude towards U.S. debt is rolling over much more quickly than even I thought it would. Heaven help us if this T bill selling develops some momentum. I also think that the tech sector is going to deliver much greater disappointment in early 1999 than is expected. The "Ignore it" quotient is going to have to rise to get us through to summer. When both a falling buck and falling earnings form the jaws of a vice, those caught in the squeeze will say more than uncle. The margins guarantee true pain if the dippers get shunted aside. I actually am starting to see them as the only cushion in this market, as the shorts sure are not. Most are m.i.a. Widespread bullish sentiment, lobsided put/call ratios, the total absurdity of the internuts, and the vertical rise of the tech sector since November in the face of a year's worth of deteriorating fundamentals, is more than unhealthy. I'd rather see the long term grinder than the cliff's edge, but it isn't shaping up that way. Murphy is lining up too many ducks.
Incidentally, I see that the Fed Vice chairman is as bearish as I am re. 1999 earnings, but what does old Alice know anyway. (g)
Best, Earlie |
